Karela vs Heart of Lions: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Naa Sheriga Sports Complex, Nalerigu
The Footlab model makes Karela the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Heart of Lions. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karela vs Heart of Lions?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Karela (1,569) and Heart of Lions (1,580).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karela have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Heart of Lions have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Nations(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Swedru All Blacks(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Vision(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Hearts of Oak(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Young Apostles(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Medeama(away) | 2-5 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Samartex(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Nations(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Aduana Stars(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Karela(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Karela win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Heart of Lions win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Karela 2-2 Heart of Lions | Premier League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Heart of Lions 0-0 Karela | Premier League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Heart of Lions 1-0 Karela | Premier League |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Karela 1-0 Heart of Lions | Premier League |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Karela 1-0 Heart of Lions | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Heart of Lions 0-0 Karela | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Karela vs Heart of Lions on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Karela score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Heart of Lions score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karela | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Heart of Lions | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karela sit 9th in Premier League (49 points from 34 matches) and Heart of Lions sit 14th (45 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Karela | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 32 | 33 | 49 |
| 14 | Heart of Lions | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 33 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karela vs Heart of Lions?
- The Footlab model makes Karela the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Heart of Lions.
- Where and when is Karela vs Heart of Lions played?
- Karela vs Heart of Lions is played on December 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Naa Sheriga Sports Complex, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 26, 2026DreamsvsYoung Apostles
- Dec 26, 2026Bechem UnitedvsMedeama
- Dec 26, 2026Hearts of OakvsAshanti Gold
- Dec 26, 2026Bibiani Gold StarsvsBerekum Chelsea
- Dec 26, 2026Debibi UnitedvsSamartex
- Dec 26, 2026Basake Holy StarsvsAduana Stars
- Dec 26, 2026VisionvsAsante Kotoko
- Dec 26, 2026Port CityvsSwedru All Blacks