Match

Karela vs Medeama: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Naa Sheriga Sports Complex, Nalerigu

KarelaMedeama

The Footlab model makes Karela the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Medeama. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Karela vs Medeama?

A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Karela (1,569) and Medeama (1,661).

Karela win43 %
Draw30 %
Medeama win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karela have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Medeama have 8, 1 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Karela
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 24, 2026Nations(home)0-1Premier League
May 17, 2026Swedru All Blacks(home)1-0Premier League
May 10, 2026Vision(away)0-3Premier League
May 6, 2026Hearts of Oak(away)0-0Premier League
May 3, 2026Young Apostles(home)2-1Premier League
Medeama
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 12, 2026ASEC Mimosas(away)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026SOA(away)1-2Friendlies Clubs
May 27, 2026Basake Holy Stars(home)2-1Friendlies Clubs
May 24, 2026Hearts of Oak(away)2-4Premier League
May 17, 2026Heart of Lions(home)5-2Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Karela win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Medeama win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 25, 2026Medeama 3-1 KarelaPremier League
Sep 28, 2025Karela 1-0 MedeamaPremier League
May 18, 2025Karela 3-1 MedeamaPremier League
Jan 1, 2025Medeama 1-0 KarelaPremier League
Jun 16, 2024Medeama 0-1 KarelaPremier League
Dec 30, 2023Karela 0-0 MedeamaPremier League

Last archived meeting: Medeama vs Karela on Jan 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Karela score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Medeama score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Karela0.90.983/154/15
Medeama2.01.3510/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Karela sit 9th in Premier League (49 points from 34 matches) and Medeama sit 1st (62 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Medeama3417116522862
9Karela34131011323349

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Karela vs Medeama?
The Footlab model makes Karela the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Medeama.
Where and when is Karela vs Medeama played?
Karela vs Medeama is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Naa Sheriga Sports Complex, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Karela and Medeama

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