Karviná vs Dukla Praha: prediction and stats
FNLRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Městský Stadión, Karviná
The Footlab model makes Karviná the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Dukla Praha. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karviná vs Dukla Praha?
Karviná starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,945 vs 1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karviná have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Dukla Praha have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Viktoria Žižkov(home) | 3-0 | FNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Arsenal Česká Lípa(away) | 5-2 | FNL |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Brumov(away) | 4-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Prostějov(away) | 2-1 | FNL |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Vlašim(home) | 1-0 | FNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ústí nad Labem(away) | 1-3 | FNL |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Slavia Praha II(home) | 1-3 | FNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Vykan(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hanácká(home) | 2-0 | FNL |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Táborsko(away) | 2-2 | FNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Karviná win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Dukla Praha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Dukla Praha 1-2 Karviná | Czech Liga |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Karviná 2-0 Dukla Praha | Czech Liga |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Dukla Praha 0-0 Karviná | Czech Liga |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Karviná 0-0 Dukla Praha | Czech Liga |
| May 13, 2023 | Dukla Praha 0-3 Karviná | FNL |
| Oct 22, 2022 | Karviná 5-0 Dukla Praha | FNL |
Last archived meeting: Dukla Praha vs Karviná on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Karviná score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Dukla Praha score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karviná | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Dukla Praha | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karviná vs Dukla Praha?
- The Footlab model makes Karviná the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Dukla Praha.
- Where and when is Karviná vs Dukla Praha played?
- Karviná vs Dukla Praha is played on October 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Městský Stadión, in the FNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.