Kerry vs Wexford: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 33Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Kerry the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Wexford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kerry vs Wexford?
Kerry starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,430 vs 1,297).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kerry have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Wexford have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | UCD(home) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 0-4 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 4-0 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 0-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | UCD(away) | 1-4 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(away) | 0-1 | First Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 2-1 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Kerry win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Wexford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Wexford 2-2 Kerry | First Division |
| May 15, 2026 | Kerry 2-1 Wexford | First Division |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Wexford 1-1 Kerry | First Division |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Kerry 0-2 Wexford | First Division |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Wexford 4-3 Kerry | First Division |
| May 16, 2025 | Kerry 1-1 Wexford | First Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Kerry score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Wexford score 0.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Wexford | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kerry sit 8th in First Division (22 points from 20 matches) and Wexford sit 5th (26 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wexford | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 6 | Kerry | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 36 |
| 8 | Wexford | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 41 | 34 |
| 8 | Kerry | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kerry vs Wexford?
- The Footlab model makes Kerry the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Wexford.
- Where and when is Kerry vs Wexford played?
- Kerry vs Wexford is played on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC), in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.