Treaty United vs Finn Harps: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 33Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Markets Field, Limerick
The Footlab model makes Treaty United the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Finn Harps. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Treaty United vs Finn Harps?
Treaty United starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,313 vs 1,190).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treaty United have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Finn Harps have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 2-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(away) | 0-2 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 0-1 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 0-3 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Treaty United win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Finn Harps win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Finn Harps 0-1 Treaty United | First Division |
| May 15, 2026 | Treaty United 3-0 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Finn Harps 2-2 Treaty United | First Division |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Finn Harps 1-0 Treaty United | First Division |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Treaty United 0-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
| May 2, 2025 | Finn Harps 0-2 Treaty United | First Division |
Last archived meeting: Finn Harps vs Treaty United on Jul 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Treaty United score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Finn Harps score 0.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treaty United | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Finn Harps | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Treaty United sit 10th in First Division (16 points from 20 matches) and Finn Harps sit 9th (18 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Finn Harps | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 18 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 41 | 30 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 56 | 22 |
| 10 | Treaty United | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Treaty United vs Finn Harps?
- The Footlab model makes Treaty United the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Finn Harps.
- Where and when is Treaty United vs Finn Harps played?
- Treaty United vs Finn Harps is played on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Markets Field, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.