Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli
The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Kocaelispor. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe is a heavy favourite: 2,208 Elo points against 1,874, a 334-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kocaelispor have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Fenerbahçe have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Amed(home) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Başakşehir(away) | 0-2 | Süper Lig |
| May 17, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(home) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 3, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Konyaspor(home) | 4-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Kocaelispor win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Fenerbahçe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | Kocaelispor 0-2 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 3-1 Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe on Feb 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kocaelispor score 0.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fenerbahçe score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| Fenerbahçe | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kocaelispor sit 11th in Süper Lig (3 points from 2 matches) and Fenerbahçe sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Kocaelispor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe?
- The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Kocaelispor.
- Where and when is Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe played?
- Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe is played on November 22, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.