Kosovo U21 vs Italy U18: prediction and stats
Mediterranean GamesGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Kosovo U21 the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Italy U18. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kosovo U21 vs Italy U18?
Kosovo U21 starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,634 vs 1,524).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kosovo U21 have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Italy U18 have 6, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Albania U21(away) | 1-3 | Mediterranean Games |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg U21(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Turkey U21(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Spain U21(away) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Romania U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2026 | Ukraine U18(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Ukraine U18(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Spain U18(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Croatia U18(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 6, 2025 | United Arab Emirates U18(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Kosovo U21 score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Italy U18 score 1.2 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kosovo U21 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 7 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Italy U18 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 6 | 3/12 | 4/12 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kosovo U21 vs Italy U18?
- The Footlab model makes Kosovo U21 the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Italy U18.
- Where and when is Kosovo U21 vs Italy U18 played?
- Kosovo U21 vs Italy U18 is played on August 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC), in the Mediterranean Games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.