Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Solidarnost Samara Arena, Samara
The Footlab model makes Krylia Sovetov the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Fakel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Krylia Sovetov (1,856) and Fakel (1,849).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Krylia Sovetov have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Fakel have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Akron(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Baltika(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Krylia Sovetov win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Fakel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Fakel 1-1 Krylia Sovetov | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2024 | Fakel 0-1 Krylia Sovetov | Premier League |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Krylia Sovetov 3-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| May 28, 2023 | Fakel 2-1 Krylia Sovetov | Premier League |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Krylia Sovetov 1-0 Fakel | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov on May 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Krylia Sovetov score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fakel score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Fakel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Krylia Sovetov sit 11th in Premier League (5 points from 5 matches) and Fakel sit 15th (2 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 15 | Fakel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
- The Footlab model makes Krylia Sovetov the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Fakel.
- Where and when is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel played?
- Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Solidarnost Samara Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.