Dynamo vs Fakel: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 6Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)VTB Arena, Moskva
The Footlab model makes Dynamo the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Fakel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dynamo vs Fakel?
Dynamo starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (2,035 vs 1,847).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dynamo have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Fakel have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dynamo win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Fakel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fakel 0-1 Dynamo | Cup |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Fakel 1-1 Dynamo | Premier League |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Dynamo 3-1 Fakel | Premier League |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Fakel 1-1 Dynamo | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Dynamo 0-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Apr 28, 2023 | Dynamo 0-2 Fakel | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Dynamo score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fakel score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Fakel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dynamo vs Fakel?
- The Footlab model makes Dynamo the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Fakel.
- Where and when is Dynamo vs Fakel played?
- Dynamo vs Fakel is played on November 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at VTB Arena, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.