Zenit vs Akhmat: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gazprom Arena, St. Petersburg
The Footlab model makes Zenit the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Akhmat. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zenit vs Akhmat?
Zenit starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (2,181 vs 1,915).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zenit have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Akhmat have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Baltika(home) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Rostov(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fakel(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Zenit win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Akhmat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Zenit 2-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Zenit 2-1 Akhmat | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Akhmat 1-0 Zenit | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Akhmat 1-2 Zenit | Cup |
| May 24, 2025 | Zenit 3-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Akhmat 1-2 Zenit | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Zenit score 1.9 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Akhmat score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit | 1.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Akhmat | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zenit sit 4th in Premier League (9 points from 5 matches) and Akhmat sit 9th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Zenit | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Akhmat | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zenit vs Akhmat?
- The Footlab model makes Zenit the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Akhmat.
- Where and when is Zenit vs Akhmat played?
- Zenit vs Akhmat is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gazprom Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.