Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Solidarnost Samara Arena, Samara
The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Krylia Sovetov. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow starts as the favourite with a 244-point Elo edge (2,100 vs 1,856).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Krylia Sovetov have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Spartak Moscow have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Akron(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Baltika(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 5-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Krylia Sovetov win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Spartak Moscow win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Spartak Moscow 3-2 Krylia Sovetov | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 1, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Spartak Moscow 2-1 Krylia Sovetov | Premier League |
| May 18, 2025 | Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Spartak Moscow 4-1 Krylia Sovetov | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2024 | Krylia Sovetov 0-3 Spartak Moscow | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Krylia Sovetov score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Moscow score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Spartak Moscow | 1.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Krylia Sovetov sit 11th in Premier League (5 points from 5 matches) and Spartak Moscow sit 2nd (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Krylia Sovetov.
- Where and when is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow played?
- Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Solidarnost Samara Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.