Lagoa vs Juventude Évora: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 10Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Capitão Josino da Costa, Lagoa
The Footlab model makes Juventude Évora the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Lagoa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lagoa vs Juventude Évora?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Lagoa (1,803) and Juventude Évora (1,889).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lagoa have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Juventude Évora have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Aljustrelense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Portimonense B(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Oriental Lisboa(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira(home) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Moncarapachense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 22, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Lagoa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Juventude Évora win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Juventude Évora 2-1 Lagoa | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Lagoa 1-1 Juventude Évora | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
Last archived meeting: Juventude Évora vs Lagoa on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lagoa score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Juventude Évora score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagoa | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Juventude Évora | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lagoa | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 35 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lagoa vs Juventude Évora?
- The Footlab model makes Juventude Évora the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Lagoa.
- Where and when is Lagoa vs Juventude Évora played?
- Lagoa vs Juventude Évora is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Capitão Josino da Costa, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.