Lagun Onak vs Leioa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Garmendipe, Azpeitia
The Footlab model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Leioa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lagun Onak vs Leioa?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Lagun Onak (1,786) and Leioa (1,837).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lagun Onak have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Leioa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lagun Onak win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Leioa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa 2-3 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Lagun Onak 1-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Leioa 2-0 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Lagun Onak 0-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Lagun Onak 2-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Leioa 1-2 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lagun Onak score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagun Onak | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lagun Onak sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (57 points from 34 matches) and Leioa sit 2nd (61 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 53 | 34 | 57 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lagun Onak vs Leioa?
- The Footlab model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Leioa.
- Where and when is Lagun Onak vs Leioa played?
- Lagun Onak vs Leioa is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Garmendipe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.