Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Giant Axe Stadium, Lancaster, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Lancaster City the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Ilkeston Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Lancaster City (1,745) and Ilkeston Town (1,732).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lancaster City have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Ilkeston Town have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Bury(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Quorn(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 1-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Ashton United(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(home) | 0-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lancaster City win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Ilkeston Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Ilkeston Town 3-0 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Lancaster City 3-1 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Ilkeston Town 4-0 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Lancaster City 4-3 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Ilkeston Town 2-3 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Lancaster City 0-4 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Ilkeston Town vs Lancaster City on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lancaster City score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ilkeston Town score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster City | 1.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Ilkeston Town | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lancaster City sit 18th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Ilkeston Town sit 13th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ilkeston Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 18 | Lancaster City | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town?
- The Footlab model makes Lancaster City the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Ilkeston Town.
- Where and when is Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town played?
- Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Giant Axe Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.