Le Messager Ngozi vs Young Star: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Urukundo, Mwumba
The Footlab model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Young Star. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Messager Ngozi vs Young Star?
Le Messager Ngozi starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,528 vs 1,413).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Messager Ngozi have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Young Star have 0, 1 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Muzinga(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Kayanza United(home) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ngozi City(away) | 0-2 | Ligue A |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Messager Ngozi score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Young Star score 0.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Young Star | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0/2 | 0/2 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Messager Ngozi sit 1st in Ligue A (6 points from 2 matches) and Young Star sit 16th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Messager Ngozi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 16 | Young Star | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Messager Ngozi vs Young Star?
- The Footlab model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Young Star.
- Where and when is Le Messager Ngozi vs Young Star played?
- Le Messager Ngozi vs Young Star is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Urukundo, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.