Le Messager Ngozi vs Ngozi City: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Urukundo, Mwumba
The Footlab model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Ngozi City. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Messager Ngozi vs Ngozi City?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Le Messager Ngozi (1,528) and Ngozi City (1,431).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Messager Ngozi have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Ngozi City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Muzinga(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 1-2 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Young Star(home) | 2-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Olympic Star(away) | 0-4 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Musongati(home) | 2-4 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Rukinzo(away) | 2-4 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Le Messager Ngozi win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Ngozi City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Ngozi City 1-2 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-1 Ngozi City | Ligue A |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-1 Ngozi City | Ligue A |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Ngozi City 3-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Mar 8, 2020 | Ngozi City 0-4 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Nov 16, 2019 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-1 Ngozi City | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Ngozi City vs Le Messager Ngozi on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Le Messager Ngozi score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ngozi City score 1.6 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Ngozi City | 1.6 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Messager Ngozi sit 1st in Ligue A (6 points from 2 matches) and Ngozi City sit 6th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Messager Ngozi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Ngozi City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Messager Ngozi vs Ngozi City?
- The Footlab model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Ngozi City.
- Where and when is Le Messager Ngozi vs Ngozi City played?
- Le Messager Ngozi vs Ngozi City is played on November 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Urukundo, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.