Lealtad vs Sporting Gijón II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Las Callejas, Villaviciosa
The Footlab model makes Sporting Gijón II the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Lealtad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lealtad vs Sporting Gijón II?
Sporting Gijón II starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (1,925 vs 1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lealtad have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Sporting Gijón II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Coruxo(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(home) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 4-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa II(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Palencia CF(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lealtad win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Sporting Gijón II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 0-1 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Lealtad 1-1 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Lealtad 0-1 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Sporting Gijón II 1-0 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Lealtad 0-1 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Sporting Gijón II 3-0 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Gijón II vs Lealtad on Jun 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lealtad score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Gijón II score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lealtad | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Sporting Gijón II | 1.9 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting Gijón II | 34 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 79 | 29 | 67 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lealtad vs Sporting Gijón II?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Gijón II the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Lealtad.
- Where and when is Lealtad vs Sporting Gijón II played?
- Lealtad vs Sporting Gijón II is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Callejas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.