Lecco vs Desenzano Calvina: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 24Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Lecco
The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Lecco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lecco vs Desenzano Calvina?
Desenzano Calvina starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,912 vs 1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lecco have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Desenzano Calvina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arzignano Valchiampo(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Desenzano Calvina(home) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Hellas Verona(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 20, 2026 | Catania(away) | 3-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 31, 2026 | Scafatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Lecco win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Desenzano Calvina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lecco 0-0 Desenzano Calvina | Coppa Italia Serie C |
Last archived meeting: Lecco vs Desenzano Calvina on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lecco score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Desenzano Calvina score 1.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecco | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Desenzano Calvina | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lecco sit 11th in Serie C - Girone A (1 points from 1 matches) and Desenzano Calvina sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Lecco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lecco vs Desenzano Calvina?
- The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Lecco.
- Where and when is Lecco vs Desenzano Calvina played?
- Lecco vs Desenzano Calvina is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.