Leixoes vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos
The Footlab AI model makes Leixoes the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leixoes wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,623 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leixoes vs Penafiel?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Leixoes (1,979) and Penafiel (1,949).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leixoes vs Penafiel
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leixoes
4-1-3-2- 7Salvador Agra
- 6A. Balde
- 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo
- 8Miguel Sousa
- 10Rafael Barbosa
- 80João Assunção
- 4Matheus Costa
- 77Paulinho
- 15Simãozinho
- 63H. Faria
- 51I. Stefanović
Penafiel
3-4-3- 10Davo
- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 21Pedro Sá
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 50Francisco Varela
- 85Carlinhos Augusto
- 5Jaime Sánchez
- 27Gonçalo Negrão
- 6Adrián Pica
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 12:32 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leixoes have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Penafiel have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 4-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 3-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica(home) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Leixoes wins, 1 draw, 3 Penafiel wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Penafiel 0-0 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Leixoes 3-2 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Leixoes 3-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Penafiel 3-1 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Leixoes 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 13, 2023 | Penafiel 3-0 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Leixoes score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leixoes sit 10th in Segunda Liga (10 points from 7 matches) and Penafiel sit 4th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
A question about Leixoes vs Penafiel?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leixoes vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leixoes the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Leixoes vs Penafiel played?
- Leixoes vs Penafiel is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Mar, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.