Libertad Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo: prediction and stats
Division Profesional - ClausuraClausura - 6Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Tigo La Huerta, Asunción
The Footlab model makes Libertad Asuncion the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Libertad Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo?
Libertad Asuncion starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (1,762 vs 1,575).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Libertad Asuncion have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Club Sp. San Lorenzo have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tacuary(away) | 0-0 | Copa Paraguay |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sportivo Luqueno(away) | 2-1 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Sportivo Trinidense(home) | 2-1 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Club Guarani(away) | 1-2 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(home) | 4-1 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(away) | 0-1 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 29 de Setiembre(away) | 1-1 | Copa Paraguay |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sportivo Luqueno(home) | 0-2 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Sportivo Trinidense(away) | 0-3 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Club Guarani(home) | 0-1 | Division Profesional - Clausura |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Libertad Asuncion win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Libertad Asuncion 5-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo | Division Profesional - Apertura |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0-7 Libertad Asuncion | Division Profesional - Apertura |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1-2 Libertad Asuncion | Copa Paraguay |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1-2 Libertad Asuncion | Copa Paraguay |
| Nov 20, 2020 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2-2 Libertad Asuncion | Division Profesional - Clausura |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Libertad Asuncion 3-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo | Division Profesional - Apertura |
Last archived meeting: Libertad Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo on May 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Libertad Asuncion score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Club Sp. San Lorenzo score 0.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad Asuncion | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 0.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Libertad Asuncion sit 2nd in Division Profesional - Clausura (12 points from 5 matches) and Club Sp. San Lorenzo sit 12th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Libertad Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo?
- The Footlab model makes Libertad Asuncion the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Where and when is Libertad Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo played?
- Libertad Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo is played on August 24, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tigo La Huerta, in the Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.