Linfield vs Carrick Rangers: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Windsor Park, Belfast
The Footlab model makes Linfield the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Carrick Rangers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Linfield vs Carrick Rangers?
Linfield starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,643 vs 1,537).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Linfield have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Carrick Rangers have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cliftonville FC(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Glentoran(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 0-3 | Premiership |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Dollingstown(away) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Limavady United(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Coleraine FC(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Limavady United(away) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portadown(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ballyclare Comrades(away) | 8-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ards(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Linfield win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Carrick Rangers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Carrick Rangers 2-0 Linfield | Premiership |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Carrick Rangers 0-0 Linfield | Premiership |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Linfield 3-1 Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Linfield 3-0 Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Carrick Rangers 1-3 Linfield | Premiership |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Linfield 1-0 Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Carrick Rangers vs Linfield on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Linfield score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Carrick Rangers score 2.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linfield | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Carrick Rangers | 2.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Linfield sit 7th in Premiership (6 points from 3 matches) and Carrick Rangers sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Carrick Rangers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Linfield | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Linfield vs Carrick Rangers?
- The Footlab model makes Linfield the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Carrick Rangers.
- Where and when is Linfield vs Carrick Rangers played?
- Linfield vs Carrick Rangers is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Windsor Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.