Larne vs Glentoran: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Inver Park, Larne
The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Glentoran. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Larne vs Glentoran?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Larne (1,746) and Glentoran (1,686).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Larne have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Glentoran have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coleraine FC(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Saburtalo(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ballymena United(away) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Linfield(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Limavady United(home) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Larne win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Glentoran win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Glentoran 0-0 Larne | Premiership |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Glentoran 1-1 Larne | Irish Cup |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Larne 2-2 Glentoran | Premiership |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Glentoran 1-4 Larne | Premiership |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Larne 1-0 Glentoran | Premiership |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Larne 0-0 Glentoran | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Larne score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Glentoran score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larne | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Glentoran | 1.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Larne sit 9th in Premiership (1 points from 1 matches) and Glentoran sit 2nd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Glentoran | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Larne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Larne vs Glentoran?
- The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Glentoran.
- Where and when is Larne vs Glentoran played?
- Larne vs Glentoran is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Inver Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.