Lions vs Peninsula Power: prediction and stats
Queensland NPLQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 28, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Luxury Paints Stadium, Brisbane
The Footlab model makes Lions the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Peninsula Power. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lions vs Peninsula Power?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Lions (2,065) and Peninsula Power (1,971).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lions have 13 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Peninsula Power have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Moreton City Excelsior(away) | 2-0 | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Brisbane Roar II(home) | 4-2 | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Peninsula Power(home) | 1-0 | Queensland NPL |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Perth Glory(home) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Brisbane City(home) | 2-2 | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gold Coast Knights(away) | 2-2 | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-1 | Queensland NPL |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Moreton City Excelsior(away) | 2-2 | Queensland NPL |
| Jul 14, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lions win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Peninsula Power win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lions 1-0 Peninsula Power | Queensland NPL |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Peninsula Power 3-2 Lions | Queensland NPL |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Lions 3-0 Peninsula Power | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Peninsula Power 1-2 Lions | Queensland NPL |
| May 24, 2025 | Lions 1-1 Peninsula Power | Queensland NPL |
| May 25, 2024 | Lions 3-1 Peninsula Power | Queensland NPL |
Last archived meeting: Lions vs Peninsula Power on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lions score 2.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Peninsula Power score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 2.5 | 0.8 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Peninsula Power | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lions sit 1st in Queensland NPL (53 points from 22 matches) and Peninsula Power sit 2nd (45 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 57 | 22 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 27 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lions vs Peninsula Power?
- The Footlab model makes Lions the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Peninsula Power.
- Where and when is Lions vs Peninsula Power played?
- Lions vs Peninsula Power is played on August 28, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Luxury Paints Stadium, in the Queensland NPL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.