Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights: prediction and stats
Queensland NPLQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 07:00 AM (UTC)Wolter Park, Brisbane
The Footlab model makes Moreton City Excelsior the favourite at 45%, against 22% for a draw and 33% for Gold Coast Knights. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Moreton City Excelsior (1,928) and Gold Coast Knights (1,917).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreton City Excelsior have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Gold Coast Knights have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lions(home) | 0-2 | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olympic(away) | 2-1 | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Brisbane Roar II(away) | 0-2 | Queensland NPL |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Peninsula Power(home) | 2-2 | Queensland NPL |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Magic United(home) | 4-3 | Queensland NPL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Brisbane Roar II(away) | 2-1 | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peninsula Power(home) | 2-2 | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gold Coast United(away) | 0-1 | Queensland NPL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gold Coast United(home) | 1-1 | Queensland NPL |
| Jul 18, 2026 | WDSC Wolves(home) | 1-2 | Queensland NPL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Moreton City Excelsior win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Gold Coast Knights win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Gold Coast Knights 2-1 Moreton City Excelsior | Queensland NPL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Moreton City Excelsior 4-1 Gold Coast Knights | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Moreton City Excelsior 4-0 Gold Coast Knights | Queensland NPL |
| May 2, 2025 | Gold Coast Knights 1-0 Moreton City Excelsior | Queensland NPL |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Gold Coast Knights 2-5 Moreton City Excelsior | Queensland NPL |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Moreton City Excelsior 2-3 Gold Coast Knights | Queensland NPL |
Last archived meeting: Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreton City Excelsior score 2.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Gold Coast Knights score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreton City Excelsior | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Gold Coast Knights | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreton City Excelsior sit 3rd in Queensland NPL (39 points from 22 matches) and Gold Coast Knights sit 4th (38 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 51 | 35 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 32 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?
- The Footlab model makes Moreton City Excelsior the favourite at 45%, against 22% for a draw and 33% for Gold Coast Knights.
- Where and when is Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights played?
- Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights is played on August 29, 2026 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at Wolter Park, in the Queensland NPL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.