Llerenense vs Santa Amalia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Fernando Robina, Llerena
The Footlab model makes Llerenense the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Santa Amalia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llerenense vs Santa Amalia?
Llerenense starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,767 vs 1,667).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llerenense have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Santa Amalia have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Calamonte(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 1, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Montehermoso(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Villanovense(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Moralo(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Diocesano(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villafranca(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Don Benito(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Llerenense win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Santa Amalia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Santa Amalia 1-2 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Llerenense 1-0 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 11, 2025 | Llerenense 1-2 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Santa Amalia 0-1 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Amalia vs Llerenense on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Llerenense score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Amalia score 0.7 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llerenense | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Santa Amalia | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llerenense sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (41 points from 34 matches) and Santa Amalia sit 13th (34 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 44 | 41 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llerenense vs Santa Amalia?
- The Footlab model makes Llerenense the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Santa Amalia.
- Where and when is Llerenense vs Santa Amalia played?
- Llerenense vs Santa Amalia is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Fernando Robina, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.