Montijo vs Jaraíz: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez, Montijo
The Footlab model makes Montijo the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Jaraíz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montijo vs Jaraíz?
Jaraíz starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,876 vs 1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montijo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Jaraíz have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Santa Amalia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 2, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Calamonte(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Badajoz(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 17, 2026 | Badajoz(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 10, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Llerenense(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Montijo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Jaraíz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Jaraíz 1-1 Montijo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Montijo 1-0 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 11, 2025 | Jaraíz 1-0 Montijo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Montijo 2-1 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Montijo score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jaraíz score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montijo | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Jaraíz | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montijo sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (46 points from 34 matches) and Jaraíz sit 5th (59 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jaraíz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 59 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43 | 42 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montijo vs Jaraíz?
- The Footlab model makes Montijo the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Jaraíz.
- Where and when is Montijo vs Jaraíz played?
- Montijo vs Jaraíz is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.