Quintana vs Castuera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 5Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Quintana. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castuera wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Quintana vs Castuera?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Quintana (1,730) and Castuera (1,728).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Quintana vs Castuera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Quintana
Not enough data to predict the Quintana lineup.
Castuera
4-3-3- ÁÁlex Cañero
- FFernando MartÃnez
- JJorge Gonzalez
- PPepe Gil
- AAbraham Bueno
- 18Loren Ruiz
- AAlejandro Chavero
- GGuille
- JJuanjo Neiva
- DDuvan Salgado
- 13Ángel Luengo Gutiérrez
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 01:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Quintana have 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Castuera have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Jerez(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Plasencia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Amalia(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Moralo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Plasencia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Jerez(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Quintana score 0.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 6; Castuera score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintana | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2 | 1/6 | 2/6 |
| Castuera | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Quintana sit 15th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (5 points from 6 matches) and Castuera sit 5th (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Castuera | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 12 |
| 15 | Quintana | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
A question about Quintana vs Castuera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Quintana vs Castuera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Quintana.
- Where and when is Quintana vs Castuera played?
- Quintana vs Castuera is played on October 21, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.