Llerenense vs Villafranca: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Fernando Robina, Llerena
The Footlab model makes Llerenense the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Villafranca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llerenense vs Villafranca?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Llerenense (1,767) and Villafranca (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llerenense have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Villafranca have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Calamonte(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 1, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Montehermoso(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Villanovense(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Diocesano(away) | 4-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Jerez(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Don Benito(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Santa Amalia(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Azuaga(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Llerenense win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Villafranca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Villafranca 2-1 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Llerenense 0-1 Villafranca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Villafranca 1-4 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Llerenense 2-1 Villafranca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Llerenense 1-0 Villafranca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Villafranca 0-2 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Villafranca vs Llerenense on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Llerenense score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Villafranca score 1.6 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llerenense | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Villafranca | 1.6 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llerenense sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (41 points from 34 matches) and Villafranca sit 7th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 40 | 55 |
| 11 | Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 44 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llerenense vs Villafranca?
- The Footlab model makes Llerenense the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Villafranca.
- Where and when is Llerenense vs Villafranca played?
- Llerenense vs Villafranca is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Fernando Robina, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.