Castuera vs Villanovense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 · Matchday 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Ruiz, Castuera
The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Villanovense. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,399 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castuera vs Villanovense?
On Elo ratings, Castuera has 1,827 points and Villanovense 1,936.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castuera vs Villanovense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castuera
Not enough data to predict the Castuera lineup.
Villanovense
Not enough data to predict the Villanovense lineup.
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 03:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castuera have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Villanovense have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Montijo(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Villafranca(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Llerenense(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Quintana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | Santa Amalia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 8, 2026 | CD Zafra(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Jerez(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Guadiana(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castuera score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Villanovense score 1.3 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castuera | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Villanovense | 1.3 | 0.5 | 9 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castuera sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (23 points from 11 matches) and Villanovense sit 4th (21 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castuera | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Villanovense | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
A question about Castuera vs Villanovense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castuera vs Villanovense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Villanovense.
- Where and when is Castuera vs Villanovense played?
- Castuera vs Villanovense is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Ruiz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.