Lusail City vs Al Shamal: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Al Shamal the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Lusail City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lusail City vs Al Shamal?
Al Shamal starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,714 vs 1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lusail City have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Al Shamal have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(away) | 0-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Den Bosch(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Al Bidda SC(home) | 1-2 | Second Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Al-Markhiya(away) | 2-0 | Second Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(away) | 2-2 | Stars League |
| May 1, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-6 | Emir Cup |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Al Sadd(away) | 2-3 | Stars League |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Qatar SC(home) | 0-2 | Stars League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(away) | 0-2 | Stars League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Lusail City win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Al Shamal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2021 | Lusail City 0-1 Al Shamal | Second Division |
| Jan 1, 2021 | Al Shamal 0-1 Lusail City | Second Division |
| Oct 29, 2020 | Lusail City 1-5 Al Shamal | Second Division |
| Jan 22, 2020 | Lusail City 1-2 Al Shamal | Second Division |
| Oct 24, 2019 | Al Shamal 3-1 Lusail City | Second Division |
Last archived meeting: Lusail City vs Al Shamal on Feb 20, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Lusail City score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Al Shamal score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusail City | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Al Shamal | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lusail City sit 10th in Stars League (0 points from 1 matches) and Al Shamal sit 8th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Lusail City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lusail City vs Al Shamal?
- The Footlab model makes Al Shamal the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Lusail City.
- Where and when is Lusail City vs Al Shamal played?
- Lusail City vs Al Shamal is played on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.