Maardu vs Nõmme United II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Maardu linnastaadion, Maardu
The Footlab model makes Maardu the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Nõmme United II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
Maardu starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,411 vs 1,279).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maardu have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Nõmme United II have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Viimsi(away) | 1-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 2-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Maardu win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Nõmme United II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Maardu 2-1 Nõmme United II | Esiliiga A |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Nõmme United II 4-1 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Nõmme United II 3-3 Maardu | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Maardu 3-2 Nõmme United II | Esiliiga B |
| May 24, 2025 | Maardu 2-0 Nõmme United II | Esiliiga B |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Nõmme United II 1-3 Maardu | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Maardu vs Nõmme United II on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Maardu score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nõmme United II score 1.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maardu | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Nõmme United II | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maardu sit 8th in Esiliiga A (16 points from 15 matches) and Nõmme United II sit 6th (18 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Maardu | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 52 | 35 |
| 6 | Nõmme United II | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 18 |
| 8 | Maardu | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 56 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
- The Footlab model makes Maardu the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Nõmme United II.
- Where and when is Maardu vs Nõmme United II played?
- Maardu vs Nõmme United II is played on September 6, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Maardu linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.