Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kadrioru staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Tallinna Kalev. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Tallinna Kalev (1,368) and Tartu Welco (1,450).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tallinna Kalev have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Tartu Welco have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elva(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kose(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Tallinna Kalev win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Tartu Welco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 2-0 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Tartu Welco 3-0 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 15, 2023 | Tartu Welco 0-4 Tallinna Kalev | Cup |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Tartu Welco 2-3 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2021 | Tartu Welco 0-1 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| May 27, 2021 | Tallinna Kalev 2-1 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tallinna Kalev score 2.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Welco score 3.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallinna Kalev | 2.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Tartu Welco | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tallinna Kalev sit 5th in Esiliiga A (18 points from 16 matches) and Tartu Welco sit 1st (38 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 38 |
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 35 | 54 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 18 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 45 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Tallinna Kalev.
- Where and when is Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco played?
- Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kadrioru staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.