Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 26, 2027 at 09:00 AM (UTC)Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Macarthur. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,923 vs 1,799).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Macarthur
4-2-3-1- 9B. Gibson
- 17O. Randazzo
- 22L. Rose
- 35A. El-Sabeh
- 8L. Vickery
- 23K. Grozos
- 25C. Talbot
- 21N. Paull
- 33H. Menham
- 5J. Aspropotamitis
- 1A. Robinson
Melbourne Victory
4-4-2- 44C. Nduka
- 9H. Sawyer
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 23K. Jelacic
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 15T. Lockyer
- 25J. Duncan
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Macarthur have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Macarthur wins, 1 draw, 3 Melbourne Victory wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 4-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Macarthur 0-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Macarthur 1-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 2-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Macarthur | Australia Cup |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Macarthur | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Macarthur sit 7th in A-League (34 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 4th (40 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
A question about Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Macarthur.
- Where and when is Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory is played on April 26, 2027 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.