Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 26, 2027 at 09:00 AM (UTC)Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Macarthur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Macarthur (1,809) and Melbourne Victory (1,900).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Macarthur have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Macarthur win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Melbourne Victory win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 4-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Macarthur 0-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Macarthur 1-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 2-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Macarthur | Australia Cup |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Macarthur | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Macarthur sit 7th in A-League (34 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 4th (40 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Macarthur.
- Where and when is Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory is played on April 26, 2027 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.