Mafra vs SC Covilha: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for SC Covilha. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mafra vs SC Covilha?
Mafra starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,919 vs 1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mafra have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; SC Covilha have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FC Fredericia(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | União Santarém(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 1, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mafra win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 SC Covilha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | Mafra 2-0 SC Covilha | Liga 3 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | SC Covilha 0-0 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Apr 24, 2023 | SC Covilha 1-2 Mafra | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 4, 2022 | Mafra 3-2 SC Covilha | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 19, 2022 | SC Covilha 2-0 Mafra | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Mafra 1-1 SC Covilha | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Mafra score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; SC Covilha score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| SC Covilha | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mafra sit 7th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and SC Covilha sit 6th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SC Covilha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Mafra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mafra vs SC Covilha?
- The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for SC Covilha.
- Where and when is Mafra vs SC Covilha played?
- Mafra vs SC Covilha is played on September 6, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Mafra, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.