SC Covilha vs Vitória de Sernache: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 11Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto, Covilhã
The Footlab AI model makes Vitória de Sernache the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for SC Covilha. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vitória de Sernache wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,831 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SC Covilha vs Vitória de Sernache?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate SC Covilha (1,840) and Vitória de Sernache (1,920).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for SC Covilha vs Vitória de Sernache
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
SC Covilha
4-3-3- 99C. Niang
- 7Danny
- 18J. Pacheco
- 5H. Innusah
- 6A. Barbosa
- 80G. Cascalheira
- 2Kauan Gomes
- 45M. Aidara
- 23Emerson Gomes
- 22E. Gomes Silva
- 1Gustavo Galil
Vitória de Sernache
4-3-3- 13Lucas Daniel
- 1Jota Silva
- 10André Dias
- 19E. Moura
- 21M. Almeida
- 6R. Embalo
- 4Matheus Matias
- 22Filipe Garcia
- 3Diego Tavares
- 17T. Marques
- 1Joao Lucas
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 06:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Covilha have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Vitória de Sernache have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Caldas(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Brito(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 SC Covilha wins, 1 draw, 0 Vitória de Sernache wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache 0-0 SC Covilha | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
SC Covilha score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Vitória de Sernache score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Covilha | 0.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Vitória de Sernache | 1.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SC Covilha sit 9th in Liga 3 (7 points from 8 matches) and Vitória de Sernache sit 8th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vitória de Sernache | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 7 |
| 9 | SC Covilha | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
A question about SC Covilha vs Vitória de Sernache?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SC Covilha vs Vitória de Sernache?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vitória de Sernache the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for SC Covilha.
- Where and when is SC Covilha vs Vitória de Sernache played?
- SC Covilha vs Vitória de Sernache is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.