Magpies vs Lions Gibraltar: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar
The Footlab model makes Lions Gibraltar the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Magpies. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Magpies vs Lions Gibraltar?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Magpies (1,335) and Lions Gibraltar (1,306).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Magpies have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lions Gibraltar have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lions Gibraltar(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Europa Point(away) | 3-0 | Premier Division |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Lynx(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Hound Dogs(away) | 0-0 | Rock Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Magpies(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Apr 26, 2026 | St Joseph S Fc(away) | 3-3 | Premier Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Lynx(away) | 1-0 | Premier Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Europa(home) | 0-3 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Magpies win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Lions Gibraltar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lions Gibraltar 1-1 Magpies | Premier Division |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Magpies 1-1 Lions Gibraltar | Premier Division |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Lions Gibraltar 3-2 Magpies | Premier Division |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Lions Gibraltar 1-2 Magpies | Premier Division |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Lions Gibraltar 1-3 Magpies | Rock Cup |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Lions Gibraltar 2-1 Magpies | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Lions Gibraltar vs Magpies on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Magpies score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lions Gibraltar score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magpies | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lions Gibraltar | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Magpies sit 6th in Premier Division (1 points from 1 matches) and Lions Gibraltar sit 5th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lions Gibraltar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Magpies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Magpies vs Lions Gibraltar?
- The Footlab model makes Lions Gibraltar the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Magpies.
- Where and when is Magpies vs Lions Gibraltar played?
- Magpies vs Lions Gibraltar is played on December 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Victoria Stadium, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.