Malaga vs Sevilla: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 38Kick-off on May 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Sevilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Sevilla?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Malaga (2,052) and Sevilla (2,056).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Sevilla have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Malaga win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Sevilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2018 | Malaga 0-1 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Sep 30, 2017 | Sevilla 2-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| May 1, 2017 | Malaga 4-2 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Dec 17, 2016 | Sevilla 4-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2016 | Sevilla 2-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2015 | Malaga 0-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sevilla score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Sevilla | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 16th in La Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Sevilla sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Malaga | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Sevilla?
- The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Sevilla.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Sevilla played?
- Malaga vs Sevilla is played on May 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.