Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 38Kick-off on May 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab AI model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Athletic Club wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Athletic Club (2,105) and Rayo Vallecano (2,117).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1- 9I. Williams
- 16Ruíz de Galarreta
- 23Robert Navarro
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 7Álex Berenguer
- 28Peio Canales
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 4Aitor Paredes
- 31J. Louis-Jean
- 15Hugo Rincón
- 1Unai Simón
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-3-1- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 7Isi Palazón
- 24F. Lejeune
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 20I. Balliu
- 25E. Audero
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 03:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Elche(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Athletic Club wins, 1 draw, 0 Rayo Vallecano wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Athletic Club 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 25, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Athletic Club 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.0 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 11th in La Liga (9 points from 7 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 13th (9 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Athletic Club | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
A question about Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab AI model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano is played on May 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.