Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 38Kick-off on May 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Athletic Club (2,052) and Rayo Vallecano (2,096).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Athletic Club win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Rayo Vallecano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Athletic Club 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 25, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Athletic Club 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 20th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 15th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Athletic Club vs Rayo Vallecano is played on May 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.