Manfredonia vs Nardò: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Miramare, Manfredonia
The Footlab model makes Manfredonia the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Nardò. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manfredonia vs Nardò?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Manfredonia (1,681) and Nardò (1,769).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manfredonia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Nardò have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Real Acerrana(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Nardò(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Nola 1925(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Heraclea(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ferrandina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Manfredonia(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Manfredonia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Nardò win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Nardò 2-0 Manfredonia | Serie D - Girone H |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Manfredonia 1-1 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Nardò 0-1 Manfredonia | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Manfredonia 1-3 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Manfredonia 1-0 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Nardò 1-1 Manfredonia | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Manfredonia score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Nardò score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manfredonia | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Nardò | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manfredonia sit 12th in Serie D - Girone H (43 points from 34 matches) and Nardò sit 5th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nardò | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 55 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34 | 39 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manfredonia vs Nardò?
- The Footlab model makes Manfredonia the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Nardò.
- Where and when is Manfredonia vs Nardò played?
- Manfredonia vs Nardò is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Miramare, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.