Mantova vs Sampdoria: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
The Footlab model makes Mantova the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Sampdoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mantova vs Sampdoria?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Mantova (1,885) and Sampdoria (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mantova have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Sampdoria have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carrarese(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 2-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Legnago Salus(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Alcione(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cremonese(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Parma(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Novara(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Taverne(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Mantova win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sampdoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Mantova 2-1 Sampdoria | Serie B |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Sampdoria 0-1 Mantova | Serie B |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Mantova 2-2 Sampdoria | Serie B |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Sampdoria 1-0 Mantova | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Mantova score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sampdoria score 0.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | 2.0 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Sampdoria | 0.7 | 1.0 | 7 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mantova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
- The Footlab model makes Mantova the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Sampdoria.
- Where and when is Mantova vs Sampdoria played?
- Mantova vs Sampdoria is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Danilo Martelli, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.