Padova vs Ascoli: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Padova
The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Padova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Padova vs Ascoli?
Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,980 vs 1,844).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Padova have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Ascoli have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-4 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Potenza(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Union Brescia(home) | 3-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Padova win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ascoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2019 | Padova 1-2 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Nov 10, 2018 | Ascoli 2-3 Padova | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Padova score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Ascoli | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Padova | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 39 | 49 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Padova vs Ascoli?
- The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Padova.
- Where and when is Padova vs Ascoli played?
- Padova vs Ascoli is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Euganeo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.