Catanzaro vs Carrarese: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
The Footlab model makes Catanzaro the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Carrarese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Catanzaro vs Carrarese?
Catanzaro starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,972 vs 1,860).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Catanzaro have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Carrarese have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 2-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Giugliano(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Paradiso(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 29, 2026 | Monza(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| May 24, 2026 | Monza(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 8, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| May 1, 2026 | Cesena(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Catanzaro win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Carrarese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Carrarese 3-3 Catanzaro | Serie B |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Catanzaro 1-1 Carrarese | Serie B |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Carrarese 2-2 Catanzaro | Serie B |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Catanzaro 3-1 Carrarese | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Carrarese vs Catanzaro on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Catanzaro score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Carrarese score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Carrarese | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Catanzaro sit 5th in Serie B (59 points from 38 matches) and Carrarese sit 12th (44 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Catanzaro | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 51 | 59 |
| 12 | Carrarese | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 47 | 52 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Catanzaro vs Carrarese?
- The Footlab model makes Catanzaro the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Carrarese.
- Where and when is Catanzaro vs Carrarese played?
- Catanzaro vs Carrarese is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.