Marchamalo vs Villarrubia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Deportivo La Solana, Marchamalo
The Footlab model makes Marchamalo the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Villarrubia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marchamalo vs Villarrubia?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Marchamalo (1,706) and Villarrubia (1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marchamalo have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Villarrubia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pozuelo Alarcón(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Sonseca(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Azuqueca(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Villarrubia(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Guadalajara II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Marchamalo(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Azuqueca(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Sonseca(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Marchamalo win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Villarrubia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Villarrubia 2-2 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Marchamalo 0-2 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Villarrubia 0-2 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Marchamalo 0-1 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Marchamalo 1-2 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Villarrubia 1-0 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Villarrubia vs Marchamalo on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marchamalo score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Villarrubia score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marchamalo | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Villarrubia | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marchamalo sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (37 points from 34 matches) and Villarrubia sit 6th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Villarrubia | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 42 | 35 | 53 |
| 13 | Marchamalo | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 37 | 45 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marchamalo vs Villarrubia?
- The Footlab model makes Marchamalo the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Villarrubia.
- Where and when is Marchamalo vs Villarrubia played?
- Marchamalo vs Villarrubia is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Deportivo La Solana, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.