Toledo vs Villarrobledo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 · Matchday 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo, Toledo
The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 58%, against 27% for a draw and 15% for Villarrobledo. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,620 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toledo vs Villarrobledo?
Toledo starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,734).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Toledo vs Villarrobledo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Toledo
Not enough data to predict the Toledo lineup.
Villarrobledo
Not enough data to predict the Villarrobledo lineup.
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 07:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toledo have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Villarrobledo have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Marchamalo(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | San Clemente(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Almansa(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | San Clemente(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Almansa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Manchego(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Villacañas(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Toledo wins, 2 draws, 0 Villarrobledo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Villarrobledo 0-0 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Toledo 3-1 Villarrobledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Villarrobledo 0-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Toledo 1-0 Villarrobledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 5, 2024 | Toledo 1-0 Villarrobledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Villarrobledo 1-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Villarrobledo vs Toledo on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Toledo score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Villarrobledo score 0.9 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Villarrobledo | 0.9 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toledo sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (19 points from 9 matches) and Villarrobledo sit 4th (17 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toledo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Villarrobledo | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 17 |
A question about Toledo vs Villarrobledo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toledo vs Villarrobledo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 58%, against 27% for a draw and 15% for Villarrobledo.
- Where and when is Toledo vs Villarrobledo played?
- Toledo vs Villarrobledo is played on November 15, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.