Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad, Villarrobledo
The Footlab model makes Villarrobledo the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Marchamalo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Villarrobledo (1,725) and Marchamalo (1,706).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarrobledo have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Marchamalo have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Villacañas(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Illescas(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sonseca(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pozuelo Alarcón(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Sonseca(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Azuqueca(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Villarrubia(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Villarrobledo win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Marchamalo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Villarrobledo 2-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Marchamalo 1-1 Villarrobledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Villarrobledo 0-6 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Marchamalo 2-4 Villarrobledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Villarrobledo 1-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Marchamalo 0-1 Villarrobledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarrobledo score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Marchamalo score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarrobledo | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Marchamalo | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarrobledo sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (43 points from 34 matches) and Marchamalo sit 13th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Villarrobledo | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 30 | 36 | 43 |
| 13 | Marchamalo | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 37 | 45 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo?
- The Footlab model makes Villarrobledo the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Marchamalo.
- Where and when is Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo played?
- Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.