Marines vs Police: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on November 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab AI model makes Marines the favourite at 45%, against 31% for a draw and 24% for Police. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.4% of the 3,651 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marines vs Police?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Marines (1,630) and Police (1,639).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marines vs Police
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marines
Not enough data to predict the Marines lineup.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 11:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marines have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Police have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Gasogi United(home) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Etincelles(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | APR(away) | 2-4 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Musanze(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Marines win, 0 draws, 5 Police wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Police 2-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Marines 1-2 Police | National Soccer League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Police 4-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Marines 0-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Marines 2-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Police 2-1 Marines | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Marines score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Police score 0.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marines | 1.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Police | 0.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marines sit 3rd in National Soccer League (7 points from 4 matches) and Police sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
A question about Marines vs Police?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marines vs Police?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marines the favourite at 45%, against 31% for a draw and 24% for Police.
- Where and when is Marines vs Police played?
- Marines vs Police is played on November 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.