Maringá vs Ferroviária: prediction and stats
Serie CFinalKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Regional Willie Davids, Maringá, Paraná
The Footlab AI model makes Ferroviária the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Maringá. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ferroviária wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,446 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maringá vs Ferroviária?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Maringá (1,760) and Ferroviária (1,741).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maringá vs Ferroviária
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maringá
4-3-3- 99Caíque
- 21Ronald Camarão
- 7Edison Negueba
- 23Paulinho
- 8Adeilson Maranhão
- 28Lucas Bonifacio
- 18Jhow Alecxander
- 30Ronald Carvalho
- 6Thiago Rosa
- 3Gabriel Santos
- 25Neto
Ferroviária
4-3-3- 11Vitor Barreto
- 99Guilherme Maranhão
- 19M. Thiago
- 29Eduardo Oliveira
- 10Albano
- 18Rafael Carrilho
- 40Zé Vitor
- 44Carlão
- 13Gustavo Medina
- 22Felipe Rodrigues
- 31Dênis Júnior
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maringá have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Ferroviária have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Floresta(home) | 2-0 | Serie C |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Santa Cruz(away) | 1-1 | Serie C |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Botafogo PB(away) | 0-0 | Serie C |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botafogo PB(home) | 2-0 | Serie C |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Santa Cruz(home) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Inter De Limeira(home) | 2-0 | Serie C |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Paysandu(away) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Brusque(away) | 1-1 | Serie C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Brusque(home) | 3-2 | Serie C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Paysandu(home) | 1-0 | Serie C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Maringá wins, 1 draw, 1 Ferroviária win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Maringá 3-2 Ferroviária | Serie C |
| Jul 15, 2023 | Ferroviária 1-2 Maringá | Serie D |
| May 13, 2023 | Maringá 0-0 Ferroviária | Serie D |
| May 25, 2019 | Ferroviária 0-1 Maringá | Serie D |
| May 18, 2019 | Maringá 0-2 Ferroviária | Serie D |
Last archived meeting: Maringá vs Ferroviária on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Maringá score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ferroviária score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maringá | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Ferroviária | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maringá sit 1st in Serie C (11 points from 6 matches) and Ferroviária sit 1st (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MaringáGroup B | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 1 | FerroviáriaGroup A | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
A question about Maringá vs Ferroviária?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maringá vs Ferroviária?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ferroviária the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Maringá.
- Where and when is Maringá vs Ferroviária played?
- Maringá vs Ferroviária is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Regional Willie Davids, in the Serie C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.