Marino vs Mensajero: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 · Matchday 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, Los Cristianos (Tenerife)
The Footlab AI model makes Marino the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Mensajero. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marino wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 6,436 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marino vs Mensajero?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Marino (1,809) and Mensajero (1,882).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marino vs Mensajero
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marino
Not enough data to predict the Marino lineup.
Mensajero
Not enough data to predict the Mensajero lineup.
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 10:48 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marino have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Mensajero have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | Tenerife C(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Mensajero(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Villa Santa Brígida(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Lanzarote(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Los Llanos(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Marino(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Los Llanos(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Marino win, 1 draw, 4 Mensajero wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Mensajero 1-1 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Marino 0-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Mensajero 3-2 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Marino 0-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Mensajero 1-2 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Mensajero 3-2 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marino score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mensajero score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marino | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Mensajero | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marino sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (16 points from 11 matches) and Mensajero sit 10th (13 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Marino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 16 |
| 10 | Mensajero | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 13 |
A question about Marino vs Mensajero?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marino vs Mensajero?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marino the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Mensajero.
- Where and when is Marino vs Mensajero played?
- Marino vs Mensajero is played on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 21, 2027San Fernando CDvsAnaza
- Mar 21, 2027Las Palmas IIIvsSan Miguel
- Mar 21, 2027Panadería PulidovsUnión Sur Yaiza
- Mar 21, 2027Real Unión de TenerifevsVilla Santa Brígida
- Mar 21, 2027Laguna de DuerovsLanzarote
- Mar 21, 2027San BartolomévsVillaverde Norte
- Mar 21, 2027Los LlanosvsTenerife C
- Mar 21, 2027Playas SotaventovsEstrella