Maruinense vs Independente Simão Dias: prediction and stats
Sergipano - 2Regular Season - 5Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Antônio Carlos Valadares, Maruim, Sergipe
The Footlab AI model makes Independente Simão Dias the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Maruinense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Independente Simão Dias wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,891 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 30, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maruinense vs Independente Simão Dias?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Maruinense (1,326) and Independente Simão Dias (1,385).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maruinense vs Independente Simão Dias
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maruinense
4-3-3- GGabriel Andrade
- AAlex Santos Araújo
- AAlex Pernambucano
- MMatheus Felipe de Jesus Alves Lima
- LLuis Fagner da Silva Conceição
- HHebert Henrique de Santana
- EEricon Natan Francisco Guimaraes Souza
- AAdriano Galvão de Melo Júnior
- RRonaldo dos Santos Sousa
- JJhonata Aparecido Nascimento Santos
- WWillian dos Santos Gomes
Independente Simão Dias
Not enough data to predict the Independente Simão Dias lineup.
Computed on October 30, 2026 at 05:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maruinense have 2 wins, 1 draw and 12 defeats; Independente Simão Dias have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Frei Paulistano(home) | 2-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Socorro Sport(away) | 3-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Rosario Central(home) | 0-2 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Aracaju FC(away) | 1-3 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Flamengo SE(home) | 0-2 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Estanciano(home) | 1-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Caninde(home) | 4-2 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | América de Pedrinhas(home) | 1-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Atlético Gloriense(away) | 0-7 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Frei Paulistano(home) | 0-3 | Sergipano - 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Maruinense score 0.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Independente Simão Dias score 0.9 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maruinense | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Independente Simão Dias | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Maruinense vs Independente Simão Dias?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maruinense vs Independente Simão Dias?
- The Footlab AI model makes Independente Simão Dias the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Maruinense.
- Where and when is Maruinense vs Independente Simão Dias played?
- Maruinense vs Independente Simão Dias is played on November 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Antônio Carlos Valadares, in the Sergipano - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.