Mash'al vs Surkhon: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Bahrom Vafoyev, Mubarek
The Footlab AI model makes Surkhon the favourite at 50%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Mash'al. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mash'al vs Surkhon?
Surkhon starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (1,619 vs 1,435).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mash'al vs Surkhon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mash'al
4-3-3- 11M. Jurabaev
- 9I. Ganikhonov
- 10K. Murtazaev
- 8S. Abduraymov
- 5K. Tozhidinov
- 28E. Ismoilov
- 70Azizbek Choriyev
- 2Zafar Akramov
- 19Tokhirbek To'khtasinov
- 99B. Askarov
- 35D. Tukhtaboev
Surkhon
4-3-3- 11R. Friday
- 19F. Qodirov
- 33U. Kuvandikov
- 21Tornike Dzebniauri
- 8H. Sherbotayev
- 15D. Ramazonov
- 7D. Tursunov
- 6B. Shamsiev
- 66B. Shaydulov
- 26B. Shukurullaev
- 25O. Boymurodov
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mash'al have 1 win, 1 draw and 13 defeats; Surkhon have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Olmaliq(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kokand-1912(away) | 0-3 | Super League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 0-3 | Super League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sogdiana(away) | 2-5 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Qizilqum(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Kokand-1912(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Neftchi(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Bunyodkor(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 29, 2026 | PFK Guliston(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mash'al wins, 3 draws, 3 Surkhon wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Surkhon 2-1 Mash'al | Super League |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Surkhon 0-0 Mash'al | Super League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Mash'al 0-0 Surkhon | Super League |
| Apr 5, 2023 | Surkhon 0-0 Mash'al | Cup |
| Nov 27, 2021 | Surkhon 1-0 Mash'al | Super League |
| Aug 17, 2021 | Surkhon 1-0 Mash'al | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Mash'al score 0.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Surkhon score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mash'al | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Surkhon | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mash'al sit 16th in Super League (4 points from 24 matches) and Surkhon sit 12th (27 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Surkhon | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 28 | 27 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 24 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 48 | 4 |
A question about Mash'al vs Surkhon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mash'al vs Surkhon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Surkhon the favourite at 50%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Mash'al.
- Where and when is Mash'al vs Surkhon played?
- Mash'al vs Surkhon is played on November 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Bahrom Vafoyev, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.